Oil vs Bonds
Since Jan 1986, $10,000 in oil grew to $36,590 (3.2% a year) and $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds to $87,755 (5.5% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Aug 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into oil in Jan 1996 is now worth
Oil came out on top, ahead of 10-year Treasury bonds, which reached $32,356. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,696, and both did better. It ends in Aug 2026, the latest month with data for Bonds.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | $44,486 | 5.0% | 345% | −88% (Apr 2020) |
| Bonds | $32,356 | 3.9% | 224% | −25% (Oct 2023) |
What each line measures: Oil, WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently); Bonds, total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Aug 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1986, 10-year Treasury bonds came out ahead with 5.5% a year against 3.2%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to oil. Starting dates matter: across all 368 10-year stretches in the data, oil beat 10-year Treasury bonds 41% of the time.
| Period | Oil | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 29.4% | 0.9% |
| Last 5 years | 4.4% | -2.2% |
| Last 10 years | 6.5% | 0.1% |
| Last 20 years | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| Last 30 years | 4.6% | 4.1% |
| Since 1986 | 3.2% | 5.5% |
Yearly return, to Aug 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In oil it would now be worth $16,629; in 10-year Treasury bonds, $12,249. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 88% for oil, around Apr 2020, and 25% for 10-year Treasury bonds, around Oct 2023. Oil asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Oil: WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently).
- Bonds: total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Oil or bonds: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1986, 10-year Treasury bonds has returned more: 5.5% a year against 3.2% for oil. Over the last 10 years, oil came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, oil beat 10-year Treasury bonds 41% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, oil or 10-year Treasury bonds?
By the deepest fall from a high, oil: oil dropped as much as 88% (around Apr 2020) and 10-year Treasury bonds as much as 25% (around Oct 2023), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in oil be worth today?
$10,000 put into oil in Jan 1986 would be worth about $36,590 by Aug 2026. The same money in 10-year Treasury bonds would be about $87,755. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in oil or 10-year Treasury bonds?
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 adds up to $12,100. In oil it would now be about $16,629; in 10-year Treasury bonds, about $12,249.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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