S&P 500 vs Bonds
Since Apr 1953, $10,000 in the S&P 500 grew to $26,133,600 (11.3% a year) and $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds to $462,730 (5.4% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Aug 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into the S&P 500 in Jan 1996 is now worth
S&P 500 came out on top, 6.6× 10-year Treasury bonds, which reached $32,356. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,696, and both did better. It ends in Aug 2026, the latest month with data for Bonds.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | $214,549 | 10.5% | 2,045% | −49% (Mar 2009) |
| Bonds | $32,356 | 3.9% | 224% | −25% (Oct 2023) |
The chart uses a log scale: equal steps up mean equal percentage gains. What each line measures: S&P 500, S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee); Bonds, total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Aug 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Apr 1953, the S&P 500 came out ahead with 11.3% a year against 5.4%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to the S&P 500. Starting dates matter: across all 761 10-year stretches in the data, the S&P 500 beat 10-year Treasury bonds 86% of the time.
| Period | S&P 500 | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 21.5% | 0.9% |
| Last 5 years | 13.1% | -2.2% |
| Last 10 years | 15.3% | 0.1% |
| Last 20 years | 11.4% | 2.9% |
| Last 30 years | 10.4% | 4.1% |
| Since 1953 | 11.3% | 5.4% |
Yearly return, to Aug 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In the S&P 500 it would now be worth $28,030; in 10-year Treasury bonds, $12,249. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 49% for the S&P 500, around Mar 2009, and 25% for 10-year Treasury bonds, around Oct 2023. The S&P 500 asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- S&P 500: S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee).
- Bonds: total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
The S&P 500 or bonds: which has been the better investment?
Since Apr 1953, the S&P 500 has returned more: 11.3% a year against 5.4% for 10-year Treasury bonds. Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, the S&P 500 beat 10-year Treasury bonds 86% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, the S&P 500 or 10-year Treasury bonds?
By the deepest fall from a high, the S&P 500: the S&P 500 dropped as much as 49% (around Mar 2009) and 10-year Treasury bonds as much as 25% (around Oct 2023), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in the S&P 500 be worth today?
$10,000 put into the S&P 500 in Apr 1953 would be worth about $26,133,600 by Aug 2026. The same money in 10-year Treasury bonds would be about $462,730. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in the S&P 500 or 10-year Treasury bonds?
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 adds up to $12,100. In the S&P 500 it would now be about $28,030; in 10-year Treasury bonds, about $12,249.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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