Real estate vs Oil
Since Jan 1986, $10,000 in US home prices grew to $57,100 (4.4% a year) and $10,000 in oil to $35,089 (3.1% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Jul 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into oil in Jan 1996 is now worth
Oil came out on top, ahead of US home prices, which reached $40,721. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,627, and both did better. It ends in Jul 2026, the latest month with data for Real estate.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | $42,662 | 4.9% | 327% | −88% (Apr 2020) |
| Real estate | $40,721 | 4.7% | 307% | −26% (Feb 2012) |
What each line measures: Oil, WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently); Real estate, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Jul 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1986, US home prices came out ahead with 4.4% a year against 3.1%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to US home prices. Starting dates matter: across all 367 10-year stretches in the data, US home prices beat oil 56% of the time.
| Period | Real estate | Oil |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 1.9% | 17.6% |
| Last 5 years | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Last 10 years | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| Last 20 years | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Last 30 years | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Since 1986 | 4.4% | 3.1% |
Yearly return, to Jul 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In US home prices it would now be worth $16,225; in oil, $16,031. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 26% for US home prices, around Feb 2012, and 88% for oil, around Apr 2020. Oil asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Real estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes.
- Oil: WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently).
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Real estate or oil: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1986, US home prices has returned more: 4.4% a year against 3.1% for oil. Over the last 10 years, US home prices came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, US home prices beat oil 56% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, US home prices or oil?
By the deepest fall from a high, oil: US home prices dropped as much as 26% (around Feb 2012) and oil as much as 88% (around Apr 2020), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in US home prices be worth today?
$10,000 put into US home prices in Jan 1986 would be worth about $57,100 by Jul 2026. The same money in oil would be about $35,089. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in US home prices or oil?
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 adds up to $12,100. In US home prices it would now be about $16,225; in oil, about $16,031.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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