Oil vs T-bills
Since Jan 1986, $10,000 in oil grew to $42,438 (3.6% a year) and $10,000 in Treasury bills to $35,375 (3.2% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Sep 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into oil in Jan 1996 is now worth
Oil came out on top, 2.5× Treasury bills, which reached $20,323. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,696, and 1 of 2 did better.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | $51,596 | 5.5% | 416% | −88% (Apr 2020) |
| T-bills | $20,323 | 2.3% | 103% | none |
What each line measures: Oil, WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently); T-bills, interest on 3-month US Treasury bills, a stand-in for cash in a money market fund. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Sep 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1986, oil came out ahead with 3.6% a year against 3.2%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to oil. Starting dates matter: across all 369 10-year stretches in the data, oil beat Treasury bills 47% of the time.
| Period | Oil | T-bills |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 52.1% | 3.7% |
| Last 5 years | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Last 10 years | 8.0% | 2.4% |
| Last 20 years | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Last 30 years | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Since 1986 | 3.6% | 3.2% |
Yearly return, to Sep 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In oil it would now be worth $19,169; in Treasury bills, $14,180. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 88% for oil, around Apr 2020, and 0% for Treasury bills, around Jan 1986. Oil asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Oil: WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently).
- T-bills: interest on 3-month US Treasury bills, a stand-in for cash in a money market fund.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Oil or T-bills: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1986, oil has returned more: 3.6% a year against 3.2% for Treasury bills. Over the last 10 years, oil came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, oil beat Treasury bills 47% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, oil or Treasury bills?
By the deepest fall from a high, oil: oil dropped as much as 88% (around Apr 2020) and Treasury bills as much as 0% (around Jan 1986), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in oil be worth today?
$10,000 put into oil in Jan 1986 would be worth about $42,438 by Sep 2026. The same money in Treasury bills would be about $35,375. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in oil or Treasury bills?
$100 a month from Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 adds up to $12,100. In oil it would now be about $19,169; in Treasury bills, about $14,180.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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