S&P 500 vs Oil
Since Jan 1986, $10,000 in the S&P 500 grew to $857,161 (11.6% a year) and $10,000 in oil to $42,438 (3.6% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Sep 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into the S&P 500 in Jan 1996 is now worth
S&P 500 came out on top, 4.1× oil, which reached $51,596. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,696, and both did better.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | $213,542 | 10.5% | 2,035% | −49% (Mar 2009) |
| Oil | $51,596 | 5.5% | 416% | −88% (Apr 2020) |
The chart uses a log scale: equal steps up mean equal percentage gains. What each line measures: S&P 500, S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee); Oil, WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently). Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Sep 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1986, the S&P 500 came out ahead with 11.6% a year against 3.6%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to the S&P 500. Starting dates matter: across all 369 10-year stretches in the data, the S&P 500 beat oil 70% of the time.
| Period | S&P 500 | Oil |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 17.6% | 52.1% |
| Last 5 years | 13.0% | 6.3% |
| Last 10 years | 15.3% | 8.0% |
| Last 20 years | 11.2% | 2.1% |
| Last 30 years | 10.3% | 4.8% |
| Since 1986 | 11.6% | 3.6% |
Yearly return, to Sep 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In the S&P 500 it would now be worth $27,585; in oil, $19,169. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 49% for the S&P 500, around Mar 2009, and 88% for oil, around Apr 2020. Oil asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- S&P 500: S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee).
- Oil: WTI crude oil monthly average spot price per barrel (oil funds that hold futures can return quite differently).
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
The S&P 500 or oil: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1986, the S&P 500 has returned more: 11.6% a year against 3.6% for oil. Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, the S&P 500 beat oil 70% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, the S&P 500 or oil?
By the deepest fall from a high, oil: the S&P 500 dropped as much as 49% (around Mar 2009) and oil as much as 88% (around Apr 2020), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in the S&P 500 be worth today?
$10,000 put into the S&P 500 in Jan 1986 would be worth about $857,161 by Sep 2026. The same money in oil would be about $42,438. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in the S&P 500 or oil?
$100 a month from Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 adds up to $12,100. In the S&P 500 it would now be about $27,585; in oil, about $19,169.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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