Bonds vs T-bills
Since Apr 1953, $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds grew to $462,730 (5.4% a year) and $10,000 in Treasury bills to $211,181 (4.2% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Aug 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into 10-year Treasury bonds in Jan 1996 is now worth
Bonds came out on top, ahead of Treasury bills, which reached $20,260. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,696, and 1 of 2 did better. It ends in Aug 2026, the latest month with data for Bonds.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonds | $32,356 | 3.9% | 224% | −25% (Oct 2023) |
| T-bills | $20,260 | 2.3% | 103% | none |
What each line measures: Bonds, total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield; T-bills, interest on 3-month US Treasury bills, a stand-in for cash in a money market fund. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Aug 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Apr 1953, 10-year Treasury bonds came out ahead with 5.4% a year against 4.2%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to Treasury bills. Starting dates matter: across all 761 10-year stretches in the data, 10-year Treasury bonds beat Treasury bills 60% of the time.
| Period | Bonds | T-bills |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 0.9% | 3.8% |
| Last 5 years | -2.2% | 3.7% |
| Last 10 years | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| Last 20 years | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Last 30 years | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Since 1953 | 5.4% | 4.2% |
Yearly return, to Aug 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In 10-year Treasury bonds it would now be worth $12,249; in Treasury bills, $14,164. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 25% for 10-year Treasury bonds, around Oct 2023, and 0% for Treasury bills, around Apr 1953. 10-year Treasury bonds asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Bonds: total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield.
- T-bills: interest on 3-month US Treasury bills, a stand-in for cash in a money market fund.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Bonds or T-bills: which has been the better investment?
Since Apr 1953, 10-year Treasury bonds has returned more: 5.4% a year against 4.2% for Treasury bills. Over the last 10 years, Treasury bills came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, 10-year Treasury bonds beat Treasury bills 60% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, 10-year Treasury bonds or Treasury bills?
By the deepest fall from a high, 10-year Treasury bonds: 10-year Treasury bonds dropped as much as 25% (around Oct 2023) and Treasury bills as much as 0% (around Apr 1953), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds be worth today?
$10,000 put into 10-year Treasury bonds in Apr 1953 would be worth about $462,730 by Aug 2026. The same money in Treasury bills would be about $211,181. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in 10-year Treasury bonds or Treasury bills?
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 adds up to $12,100. In 10-year Treasury bonds it would now be about $12,249; in Treasury bills, about $14,164.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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