Bitcoin vs Bonds
Since Aug 2015, $10,000 in Bitcoin grew to $2,760,065 (66.7% a year) and $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds to $10,903 (0.8% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Aug 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into Bitcoin in Aug 2015 is now worth
Bitcoin came out on top, 253.1× 10-year Treasury bonds, which reached $10,903. Just keeping up with prices needed $14,056, and 1 of 2 did better. It ends in Aug 2026, the latest month with data for Bonds.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $2,760,065 | 66.7% | 27,501% | −76% (Feb 2019) |
| Bonds | $10,903 | 0.8% | 9% | −25% (Oct 2023) |
The chart uses a log scale: equal steps up mean equal percentage gains. What each line measures: Bitcoin, Bitcoin monthly average of daily closing prices on Coinbase, in US dollars; Bonds, total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Aug 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Aug 2015, Bitcoin came out ahead with 66.7% a year against 0.8%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to Bitcoin. Starting dates matter: across all 73 5-year stretches in the data, Bitcoin beat 10-year Treasury bonds 100% of the time.
| Period | Bitcoin | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | -39.5% | 0.9% |
| Last 5 years | 8.7% | -2.2% |
| Last 10 years | 61.4% | 0.1% |
| Since 2015 | 66.7% | 0.8% |
Yearly return, to Aug 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In Bitcoin it would now be worth $138,115; in 10-year Treasury bonds, $12,249. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 76% for Bitcoin, around Feb 2019, and 25% for 10-year Treasury bonds, around Oct 2023. Bitcoin asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin monthly average of daily closing prices on Coinbase, in US dollars.
- Bonds: total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Bitcoin or bonds: which has been the better investment?
Since Aug 2015, Bitcoin has returned more: 66.7% a year against 0.8% for 10-year Treasury bonds. Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin came out ahead. Across every 5-year stretch in the data, Bitcoin beat 10-year Treasury bonds 100% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, Bitcoin or 10-year Treasury bonds?
By the deepest fall from a high, Bitcoin: Bitcoin dropped as much as 76% (around Feb 2019) and 10-year Treasury bonds as much as 25% (around Oct 2023), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in Bitcoin be worth today?
$10,000 put into Bitcoin in Aug 2015 would be worth about $2,760,065 by Aug 2026. The same money in 10-year Treasury bonds would be about $10,903. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in Bitcoin or 10-year Treasury bonds?
$100 a month from Aug 2016 to Aug 2026 adds up to $12,100. In Bitcoin it would now be about $138,115; in 10-year Treasury bonds, about $12,249.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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