Real estate vs Bonds
Since Jan 1975, $10,000 in US home prices grew to $131,506 (5.1% a year) and $10,000 in 10-year Treasury bonds to $240,034 (6.4% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Jul 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into US home prices in Jan 1996 is now worth
Real estate came out on top, ahead of 10-year Treasury bonds, which reached $32,436. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,627, and both did better. It ends in Jul 2026, the latest month with data for Real estate.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate | $40,721 | 4.7% | 307% | −26% (Feb 2012) |
| Bonds | $32,436 | 3.9% | 224% | −25% (Oct 2023) |
What each line measures: Real estate, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes; Bonds, total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Jul 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1975, 10-year Treasury bonds came out ahead with 6.4% a year against 5.1%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to US home prices. Starting dates matter: across all 499 10-year stretches in the data, US home prices beat 10-year Treasury bonds 24% of the time.
| Period | Real estate | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 1.9% | 2.6% |
| Last 5 years | 4.9% | -2.0% |
| Last 10 years | 6.3% | 0.1% |
| Last 20 years | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Last 30 years | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Since 1975 | 5.1% | 6.4% |
Yearly return, to Jul 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In US home prices it would now be worth $16,225; in 10-year Treasury bonds, $12,280. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 26% for US home prices, around Feb 2012, and 25% for 10-year Treasury bonds, around Oct 2023. US home prices asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Real estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes.
- Bonds: total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds (interest plus price changes), modelled from the monthly 10-year yield.
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Real estate or bonds: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1975, 10-year Treasury bonds has returned more: 6.4% a year against 5.1% for US home prices. Over the last 10 years, US home prices came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, US home prices beat 10-year Treasury bonds 24% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, US home prices or 10-year Treasury bonds?
By the deepest fall from a high, US home prices: US home prices dropped as much as 26% (around Feb 2012) and 10-year Treasury bonds as much as 25% (around Oct 2023), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in US home prices be worth today?
$10,000 put into US home prices in Jan 1975 would be worth about $131,506 by Jul 2026. The same money in 10-year Treasury bonds would be about $240,034. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in US home prices or 10-year Treasury bonds?
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 adds up to $12,100. In US home prices it would now be about $16,225; in 10-year Treasury bonds, about $12,280.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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