Real estate vs S&P 500
Since Jan 1975, $10,000 in US home prices grew to $131,506 (5.1% a year) and $10,000 in the S&P 500 to $4,009,011 (12.3% a year). Try your own amount and dates, or add more assets.
Real monthly data through Jul 2026, updated monthly. How we calculate$10,000 put into the S&P 500 in Jan 1996 is now worth
S&P 500 came out on top, 5.1× US home prices, which reached $40,721. Just keeping up with prices needed $21,627, and both did better. It ends in Jul 2026, the latest month with data for Real estate.
Full results by asset
| Asset | Worth now | Per year | Total return | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | $207,996 | 10.5% | 1,980% | −49% (Mar 2009) |
| Real estate | $40,721 | 4.7% | 307% | −26% (Feb 2012) |
The chart uses a log scale: equal steps up mean equal percentage gains. What each line measures: S&P 500, S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee); Real estate, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes. Inflation uses the US Consumer Price Index. Monthly averages, data through Jul 2026; no fees or taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which has done better?
Over the whole period both have data, since Jan 1975, the S&P 500 came out ahead with 12.3% a year against 5.1%. Over the last 10 years the lead went to the S&P 500. Starting dates matter: across all 499 10-year stretches in the data, US home prices beat the S&P 500 10% of the time.
| Period | Real estate | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 1.9% | 20.0% |
| Last 5 years | 4.9% | 12.9% |
| Last 10 years | 6.3% | 15.1% |
| Last 20 years | 3.0% | 11.3% |
| Last 30 years | 4.7% | 10.4% |
| Since 1975 | 5.1% | 12.3% |
Yearly return, to Jul 2026. The higher one in each row is green.
Investing a little every month
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 is 121 buys and $12,100 in total. In US home prices it would now be worth $16,225; in the S&P 500, $27,486. Monthly buying spreads the entry price, which matters most for the more volatile of the two.
Which is riskier?
The deepest fall from a high was 26% for US home prices, around Feb 2012, and 49% for the S&P 500, around Mar 2009. The S&P 500 asked more patience of its owners. These use monthly averages, so the worst single days were a little deeper.
What the numbers measure
- Real estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: home prices only, without rent, mortgage, upkeep or taxes.
- S&P 500: S&P 500 monthly average level with dividends reinvested (an index fund, before its small fee).
No fees or taxes are included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Common questions
Real estate or the S&P 500: which has been the better investment?
Since Jan 1975, the S&P 500 has returned more: 12.3% a year against 5.1% for US home prices. Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 came out ahead. Across every 10-year stretch in the data, US home prices beat the S&P 500 10% of the time, so the answer depends heavily on when you start.
Which is riskier, US home prices or the S&P 500?
By the deepest fall from a high, the S&P 500: US home prices dropped as much as 26% (around Feb 2012) and the S&P 500 as much as 49% (around Mar 2009), using monthly averages.
How much would $10,000 in US home prices be worth today?
$10,000 put into US home prices in Jan 1975 would be worth about $131,506 by Jul 2026. The same money in the S&P 500 would be about $4,009,011. Change the amount and dates in the calculator to see any period.
What if I invested monthly in US home prices or the S&P 500?
$100 a month from Jul 2016 to Jul 2026 adds up to $12,100. In US home prices it would now be about $16,225; in the S&P 500, about $27,486.
FatDCA comparisons are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice.
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