Safe withdrawal rate calculator
Replay your yearly withdrawal against every retirement since 1914 (or 1954 with bonds) and see how often the money lasted, the worst start year, and the highest rate that survived them all.
Market data through Sep 2026, updated monthly. How we calculateWithdrawing 4.0% a year for 30 years lasted in
We replayed every retirement starting in January from 1954 to 1996 (43 in all), spending $40,000 the first year and raising it with inflation. It ran out in 4; the worst started in 1966 and lasted 25 yr 11 mo. The highest spending that survived every start was $37,709 a year, a 3.8% rate.
Portfolio: 60% S&P 500 (dividends reinvested) and 40% 10-year Treasury bonds, rebalanced monthly. Withdrawals are monthly and rise with US inflation (CPI). No fees or taxes. Bond data starts in 1953, so start years begin in 1954. Past returns do not predict future returns.
How this calculator works
Enter your portfolio, the spending you take out in the first year, how long retirement lasts and your stock and bond mix. Each year after, spending rises with US inflation.
The calculator replays that plan starting in every January with enough history behind it, using real monthly S&P 500 returns with dividends and 10-year Treasury bond returns, and counts how many retirements made it to the end.
It also searches for the highest first-year spending that survived every start year, the number many planners call the safe withdrawal rate.
Each month: balance = (balance − spending ÷ 12) × (1 + portfolio return); spending rises with CPICommon questions
What is the 4% rule?
Take 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then raise that dollar amount with inflation each year. Studies of US history found it lasted 30 years in almost every period.
Why does the start year matter so much?
A big market fall early in retirement, while you are also withdrawing, does lasting damage. Retirements that began in the mid-1960s faced falling markets and high inflation together, which is why they are the classic worst case.
Should I use more stocks or more bonds?
In US history, portfolios with at least half in stocks usually lasted longer, because growth outpaced withdrawals. Bonds made the ride smoother. Try a few mixes and compare the success rate and the worst case.
Is a 90% success rate good enough?
It depends on how flexible you can be. People who can trim spending after a bad year can use a higher rate; people with no room to cut often choose the rate that survived every start.
Does it include fees and taxes?
No. Fund fees and taxes on withdrawals reduce what you can spend, so leave some margin.
FatDCA calculators are educational estimates, not investment, tax or legal advice. Results depend on the assumptions you enter, and past returns do not predict future returns.
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